Recognizing when a winner stops working

Can agents tell creative fatigue apart from a changing audience or changing distribution conditions, and decide whether to adapt a concept or explore something new?

A drop in performance can mean people have seen the work too often, that a different audience is now seeing it, or that a channel changed how it distributes content. Each calls for a different move.

Agents that retire good concepts too early waste them. Agents that hold on too long waste budget.

1. 1Track performance by audience segment and exposure frequency, alongside channel-level signals.
2. 2Fit simple decay models per concept and flag departures that frequency alone does not explain.
3. 3Frame the response as an explore-or-adapt decision with an explicit budget for exploration.

Earlier, better-explained decisions to refresh, re-target or replace creative, reviewed against what actually happened next.

ProposedOpen question.